October, often referred to in the crypto space as “Uptober”, has historically been associated with strong market gains. However, analyst Ash Crypto has cautioned that this month may not be a straight upward path. Through his social media updates, he suggested that while optimism could dominate the first half of October, a mid-month pullback might shake out many retail investors.
According to him, technical indicators particularly the four-day moving average are showing signs of weakness that could trigger a short-term retracement. He anticipates Bitcoin could slip from around $120,000 to $105,000 and Ethereum from roughly $4,800 to $3,800 between October 15 and 20. Profit-taking from summer buyers, combined with the liquidation of leveraged positions amid tightening liquidity, may further increase short-term volatility. Yet, he considers this washout of weaker hands as a healthy setup for future growth. Currently, Ash Crypto has allocated about 85% of his portfolio while keeping 15% in cash to seize potential opportunities during dips.
Looking toward the second half of October and into the final quarter of 2025, he foresees a strong rebound. A potential short squeeze could drive Bitcoin into the $150,000–$180,000 range and Ethereum between $8,000 and $12,000, with select altcoins even targeting gains of 10x to 50x.
Supporting this bullish scenario, historical data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin has closed October in positive territory in 10 of the last 12 years, with an average monthly gain of about 29%. Notably, the asset surged 28.5% in October 2023 and 10.8% in 2024. Seasonal trends and market sentiment, therefore, remain strong drivers for a potential rally as the year draws to a close.