As the October 1 deadline approaches, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown has intensified, pushing investors to seek safety in gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Prediction markets like Polymarket now price the likelihood of a shutdown at 85%, reflecting growing concern as political disputes between Republicans and Democrats over healthcare and budget spending remain unresolved.
If Congress fails to pass a funding bill, government operations would halt, delaying key economic data releases and potentially slowing decisions by the Federal Reserve. Regulatory bodies such as the SEC and CFTC could also face staffing cuts, stalling approvals of cryptocurrency ETFs.
Analysts warn of short-term volatility across equities and digital assets, noting that Bitcoin and altcoins may see sharper swings. Last week alone, crypto markets recorded over $1 billion in liquidations, underscoring fragile investor sentiment.
Safe-haven demand has surged, with gold reaching $3,872 per ounce up 50% year-to-dateand silver climbing to $47, its highest level in 14 years. While near-term pressure persists, historical patterns suggest markets often rebound after shutdowns, potentially creating new entry points for risk assets.