October opened on a strong note for cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin climbing to $117,775 and Ethereum holding above $4,300. According to QCP’s latest market analysis, upcoming U.S. economic indicators such as ISM data and nonfarm payrolls are expected to confirm a gradually softer yet resilient economic backdrop. Recent figures, including the rebound in the CESI index, GDPNow’s 3.3% growth forecast, and a 2.9% core PCE reading, highlight robust consumer demand.
While the 100 basis-point rate cut in 2024 continues to filter through the economy, September’s 25-point “insurance cut” is seen as insufficient to accelerate further easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s emphasis on uncertainty has pushed yields higher, dampening expectations of additional cuts this year.
QCP notes that U.S. activity data signals moderate growth, with the S&P Global Manufacturing Index stable near 52, even amid tariffs and labor market cooling. Analysts expect the labor market to bottom out by early 2026, with inflation holding near 3%, suggesting only shallow policy easing. A stronger-than-expected jobs report this Friday could lift yields and weigh on equities, while weaker data would confirm a gradual easing path.
Budget disputes in Washington are seen as having limited impact, as essential services continue and workers typically receive back pay. Historically, shutdowns have coincided with equity resilience the S&P 500 gained nearly 10% during the 2018–2019 standoff. For Bitcoin, QCP advises focusing on corrections rather than chasing opening gaps, given its correlation with broader markets.
Investors now await key data releases throughout the week, including today’s ISM Manufacturing Index, jobless claims, and consumer confidence, ahead of Friday’s pivotal nonfarm payroll report (expected +50,000 jobs, unemployment at 4.3%). This data is likely to set the tone for crypto markets in the near term.