At the start of the week, Bitcoin reached $121,603 before a correction on October 7 pushed it below $120,000. It is currently trading near $121,000, about 4% below its recent high of $126,220, showing resilience despite short-term volatility. Analysts such as Justin d’Anethan from Arctic Digital and Vincent Liu from Kronos Research note that this pullback is typical after strong rallies and emphasize that long-term accumulation remains solid.
Strong demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, combined with the lowest BTC supply on exchanges in six years, continues to tighten market liquidity. d’Anethan pointed out that leverage levels remain contained while spot interest stays high, suggesting Bitcoin could retest its highs if sidelined liquidity returns. Min Jung from Presto Research highlighted that on-chain data confirms an ongoing accumulation phase even in the absence of a clear market-driving narrative.
On the macroeconomic side, a stronger dollar, persistent yields, and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate policy have dampened risk appetite. Historically, prolonged U.S. government shutdowns have benefited hedge assets such as gold and Bitcoin. According to CME FedWatch data, there is a 94.6% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin if inflation data softens.
Despite recent swings, October remains historically bullish for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have averaged gains of 22% and 5%, respectively. Liu noted that accumulation continues even with volatility in play. d’Anethan added that while the pace of appreciation may be slower than investors expect, factors such as low leverage, strong spot demand, and potential monetary easing create favorable conditions for new highs in the coming weeks.